Fuelcell Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.38
| FCEL Stock | USD 10.04 0.56 5.28% |
FuelCell |
FuelCell Energy Target Price Odds to finish over 10.38
The tendency of FuelCell Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 10.38 or more in 90 days |
| 10.04 | 90 days | 10.38 | about 42.18 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FuelCell Energy to move over $ 10.38 or more in 90 days from now is about 42.18 (This FuelCell Energy probability density function shows the probability of FuelCell Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of FuelCell Energy price to stay between its current price of $ 10.04 and $ 10.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.87 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days FuelCell Energy has a beta of -0.67. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding FuelCell Energy are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, FuelCell Energy is likely to outperform the market. Additionally FuelCell Energy has an alpha of 0.1126, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). FuelCell Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for FuelCell Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FuelCell Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FuelCell Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FuelCell Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FuelCell Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FuelCell Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FuelCell Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FuelCell Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.67 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.52 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0 |
FuelCell Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of FuelCell Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for FuelCell Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| FuelCell Energy had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| FuelCell Energy has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 112.13 M. Net Loss for the year was (108.06 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (8.16 M). | |
| FuelCell Energy currently holds about 456.48 M in cash with (140.25 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.13. | |
| FuelCell Energy has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 43709 shares by Mark Feasel of FuelCell Energy at 1.12 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
FuelCell Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of FuelCell Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential FuelCell Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FuelCell Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.5 B |
FuelCell Energy Technical Analysis
FuelCell Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FuelCell Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FuelCell Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing FuelCell Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
FuelCell Energy Predictive Forecast Models
FuelCell Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many FuelCell Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FuelCell Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about FuelCell Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about FuelCell Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for FuelCell Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| FuelCell Energy had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| FuelCell Energy has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 112.13 M. Net Loss for the year was (108.06 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (8.16 M). | |
| FuelCell Energy currently holds about 456.48 M in cash with (140.25 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.13. | |
| FuelCell Energy has a very weak financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 43709 shares by Mark Feasel of FuelCell Energy at 1.12 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out FuelCell Energy Backtesting, FuelCell Energy Valuation, FuelCell Energy Correlation, FuelCell Energy Hype Analysis, FuelCell Energy Volatility, FuelCell Energy History as well as FuelCell Energy Performance. For more information on how to buy FuelCell Stock please use our How to buy in FuelCell Stock guide.You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Is Electrical Components & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FuelCell Energy. If investors know FuelCell will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FuelCell Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (7.83) | Revenue Per Share 5.504 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets (0.10) | Return On Equity (0.19) |
The market value of FuelCell Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FuelCell that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FuelCell Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FuelCell Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FuelCell Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FuelCell Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FuelCell Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FuelCell Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FuelCell Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.