First Community Bancshares Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.53
| FCBC Stock | USD 42.41 0.77 1.85% |
First |
First Community Target Price Odds to finish below 14.53
The tendency of First Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 14.53 or more in 90 days |
| 42.41 | 90 days | 14.53 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Community to drop to $ 14.53 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This First Community Bancshares probability density function shows the probability of First Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of First Community Banc price to stay between $ 14.53 and its current price of $42.41 at the end of the 90-day period is about 23.48 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.66 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, First Community will likely underperform. Additionally First Community Bancshares has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. First Community Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for First Community
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Community Banc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.First Community Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Community is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Community's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Community Bancshares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Community within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.66 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
First Community Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Community for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Community Banc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| First Community Banc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 22nd of November 2024 First Community paid $ 0.31 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: First Community Bankshares Sees Strong Trading Volume Heres Why |
First Community Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of First Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential First Community's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Community's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 18 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 358.5 M |
First Community Technical Analysis
First Community's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. First Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Community Bancshares. In general, you should focus on analyzing First Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
First Community Predictive Forecast Models
First Community's time-series forecasting models is one of many First Community's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary First Community's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about First Community Banc
Checking the ongoing alerts about First Community for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for First Community Banc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| First Community Banc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| On 22nd of November 2024 First Community paid $ 0.31 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: First Community Bankshares Sees Strong Trading Volume Heres Why |
Check out First Community Backtesting, First Community Valuation, First Community Correlation, First Community Hype Analysis, First Community Volatility, First Community History as well as First Community Performance. For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Community. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Community listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.09) | Dividend Share 1.2 | Earnings Share 2.74 | Revenue Per Share 8.864 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of First Community Banc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Community's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Community's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Community's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Community's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Community's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Community is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Community's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.