Erdene Resource Development Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 0.44
| ERDCF Stock | USD 0.44 0.01 2.33% |
Erdene |
Erdene Resource Target Price Odds to finish below 0.44
The tendency of Erdene Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 0.44 | 90 days | 0.44 | about 49.89 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Erdene Resource to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 49.89 (This Erdene Resource Development probability density function shows the probability of Erdene Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Erdene Resource Development has a beta of -0.6 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Erdene Resource are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Erdene Resource Development is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Erdene Resource Development has an alpha of 0.4729, implying that it can generate a 0.47 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Erdene Resource Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Erdene Resource
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Erdene Resource Deve. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Erdene Resource's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Erdene Resource Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Erdene Resource is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Erdene Resource's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Erdene Resource Development, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Erdene Resource within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.47 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.6 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Erdene Resource Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Erdene Resource for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Erdene Resource Deve can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Erdene Resource Deve has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Erdene Resource Deve appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Erdene Resource Deve has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (5.57 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Erdene Resource Development has accumulated about 395.46 K in cash with (5.24 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 22.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Erdene Resource Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Erdene Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Erdene Resource's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Erdene Resource's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 294.4 M |
Erdene Resource Technical Analysis
Erdene Resource's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Erdene Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Erdene Resource Development. In general, you should focus on analyzing Erdene Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Erdene Resource Predictive Forecast Models
Erdene Resource's time-series forecasting models is one of many Erdene Resource's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Erdene Resource's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Erdene Resource Deve
Checking the ongoing alerts about Erdene Resource for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Erdene Resource Deve help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Erdene Resource Deve has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Erdene Resource Deve appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Erdene Resource Deve has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (5.57 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Erdene Resource Development has accumulated about 395.46 K in cash with (5.24 M) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 22.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Erdene Pink Sheet
Erdene Resource financial ratios help investors to determine whether Erdene Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Erdene with respect to the benefits of owning Erdene Resource security.