Engro Fertilizers (Pakistan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 67.93
| EFERT Stock | 200.34 1.05 0.53% |
Engro |
Engro Fertilizers Target Price Odds to finish over 67.93
The tendency of Engro Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 67.93 in 90 days |
| 200.34 | 90 days | 67.93 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Engro Fertilizers to stay above 67.93 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Engro Fertilizers probability density function shows the probability of Engro Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Engro Fertilizers price to stay between 67.93 and its current price of 200.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 63.67 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Engro Fertilizers has a beta of -0.1 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Engro Fertilizers are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Engro Fertilizers is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Engro Fertilizers has an alpha of 0.1321, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Engro Fertilizers Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Engro Fertilizers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Engro Fertilizers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Engro Fertilizers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Engro Fertilizers Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Engro Fertilizers is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Engro Fertilizers' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Engro Fertilizers, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Engro Fertilizers within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Engro Fertilizers Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Engro Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Engro Fertilizers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Engro Fertilizers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Dividends Paid | 20.7 B | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 15.1 B |
Engro Fertilizers Technical Analysis
Engro Fertilizers' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Engro Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Engro Fertilizers. In general, you should focus on analyzing Engro Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Engro Fertilizers Predictive Forecast Models
Engro Fertilizers' time-series forecasting models is one of many Engro Fertilizers' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Engro Fertilizers' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Engro Fertilizers in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Engro Fertilizers' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Engro Fertilizers options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Engro Stock
Engro Fertilizers financial ratios help investors to determine whether Engro Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Engro with respect to the benefits of owning Engro Fertilizers security.