Dermapharm Holding (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 40.97
| DMP Stock | 38.50 0.70 1.85% |
Dermapharm |
Dermapharm Holding Target Price Odds to finish over 40.97
The tendency of Dermapharm Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 40.97 or more in 90 days |
| 38.50 | 90 days | 40.97 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Dermapharm Holding to move over 40.97 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Dermapharm Holding SE probability density function shows the probability of Dermapharm Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Dermapharm Holding price to stay between its current price of 38.50 and 40.97 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Dermapharm Holding SE has a beta of -0.22 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Dermapharm Holding are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Dermapharm Holding SE is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Dermapharm Holding SE has an alpha of 0.2263, implying that it can generate a 0.23 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Dermapharm Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Dermapharm Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dermapharm Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dermapharm Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Dermapharm Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Dermapharm Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Dermapharm Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Dermapharm Holding SE, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Dermapharm Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.23 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
Dermapharm Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Dermapharm Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Dermapharm Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 65.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Dermapharm Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Dermapharm Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Dermapharm Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dermapharm Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 53.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 173.2 M |
Dermapharm Holding Technical Analysis
Dermapharm Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Dermapharm Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Dermapharm Holding SE. In general, you should focus on analyzing Dermapharm Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Dermapharm Holding Predictive Forecast Models
Dermapharm Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Dermapharm Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Dermapharm Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Dermapharm Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Dermapharm Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Dermapharm Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 65.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Dermapharm Stock Analysis
When running Dermapharm Holding's price analysis, check to measure Dermapharm Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dermapharm Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Dermapharm Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dermapharm Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dermapharm Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dermapharm Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.