VanEck Defense (Germany) Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Over 38.02
| DFEN Etf | 34.60 0.13 0.38% |
VanEck |
VanEck Defense Target Price Odds to finish over 38.02
The tendency of VanEck Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 38.02 or more in 90 days |
| 34.60 | 90 days | 38.02 | about 1.55 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of VanEck Defense to move over 38.02 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.55 (This VanEck Defense ETF probability density function shows the probability of VanEck Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of VanEck Defense ETF price to stay between its current price of 34.60 and 38.02 at the end of the 90-day period is about 38.74 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon VanEck Defense has a beta of 0.16 suggesting as returns on the market go up, VanEck Defense average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding VanEck Defense ETF will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally VanEck Defense ETF has an alpha of 0.1842, implying that it can generate a 0.18 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). VanEck Defense Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for VanEck Defense
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck Defense ETF. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VanEck Defense Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. VanEck Defense is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the VanEck Defense's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold VanEck Defense ETF, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of VanEck Defense within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.79 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
VanEck Defense Technical Analysis
VanEck Defense's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. VanEck Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of VanEck Defense ETF. In general, you should focus on analyzing VanEck Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
VanEck Defense Predictive Forecast Models
VanEck Defense's time-series forecasting models is one of many VanEck Defense's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary VanEck Defense's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards VanEck Defense in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, VanEck Defense's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from VanEck Defense options trading.