Citicore Energy (Philippines) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.17

CREIT Stock   3.17  0.01  0.31%   
Citicore Energy's future price is the expected price of Citicore Energy instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Citicore Energy REIT performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Citicore Energy Backtesting, Citicore Energy Valuation, Citicore Energy Correlation, Citicore Energy Hype Analysis, Citicore Energy Volatility, Citicore Energy History as well as Citicore Energy Performance.
  
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Citicore Energy Target Price Odds to finish over 3.17

The tendency of Citicore Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 3.17 90 days 3.17 
about 13.54
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Citicore Energy to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 13.54 (This Citicore Energy REIT probability density function shows the probability of Citicore Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Citicore Energy REIT has a beta of -0.0417 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Citicore Energy are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Citicore Energy REIT is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Citicore Energy REIT has an alpha of 0.0736, implying that it can generate a 0.0736 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Citicore Energy Price Density   
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.152.612.692.82.882.973.063.143.213.33.38TargetCiticore Energy Mean 1234
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Citicore Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citicore Energy REIT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Citicore Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.523.173.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.252.903.55
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
2.503.153.80
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
3.163.193.22
Details

Citicore Energy Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Citicore Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Citicore Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Citicore Energy REIT, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Citicore Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.07
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.04
σ
Overall volatility
0.09
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Citicore Energy Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Citicore Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Citicore Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Citicore Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding6.5 B
Cash And Short Term Investments49 M

Citicore Energy Technical Analysis

Citicore Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Citicore Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Citicore Energy REIT. In general, you should focus on analyzing Citicore Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Citicore Energy Predictive Forecast Models

Citicore Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Citicore Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Citicore Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Citicore Energy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Citicore Energy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Citicore Energy options trading.

Additional Tools for Citicore Stock Analysis

When running Citicore Energy's price analysis, check to measure Citicore Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Citicore Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Citicore Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Citicore Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Citicore Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Citicore Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.