Cresud Wnt (Argentina) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 696.98
| CRE3W Stock | ARS 1,050 25.00 2.44% |
Cresud |
Cresud Wnt Target Price Odds to finish below 696.98
The tendency of Cresud Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 696.98 or more in 90 days |
| 1,050 | 90 days | 696.98 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cresud Wnt to drop to 696.98 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Cresud Wnt probability density function shows the probability of Cresud Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cresud Wnt price to stay between 696.98 and its current price of 1050.0 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.81 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cresud Wnt has a beta of 0.3 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Cresud Wnt average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cresud Wnt will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cresud Wnt has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Cresud Wnt Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cresud Wnt
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cresud Wnt. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cresud Wnt's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cresud Wnt Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cresud Wnt is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cresud Wnt's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cresud Wnt, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cresud Wnt within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 111.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Cresud Wnt Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cresud Wnt for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cresud Wnt can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cresud Wnt generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cresud Wnt has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Cresud Wnt Technical Analysis
Cresud Wnt's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cresud Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cresud Wnt. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cresud Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cresud Wnt Predictive Forecast Models
Cresud Wnt's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cresud Wnt's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cresud Wnt's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cresud Wnt
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cresud Wnt for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cresud Wnt help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cresud Wnt generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cresud Wnt has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Other Information on Investing in Cresud Stock
Cresud Wnt financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cresud Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cresud with respect to the benefits of owning Cresud Wnt security.