Continental Aktiengesellscha (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 53.94
| CON Stock | 64.76 1.00 1.57% |
Continental |
Continental Aktiengesellscha Target Price Odds to finish below 53.94
The tendency of Continental Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 53.94 or more in 90 days |
| 64.76 | 90 days | 53.94 | roughly 2.43 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Continental Aktiengesellscha to drop to 53.94 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.43 (This Continental Aktiengesellschaft probability density function shows the probability of Continental Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Continental Aktiengesellscha price to stay between 53.94 and its current price of 64.76 at the end of the 90-day period is about 87.37 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Continental Aktiengesellscha has a beta of 0.0615 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Continental Aktiengesellscha average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Continental Aktiengesellschaft will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Continental Aktiengesellschaft has an alpha of 0.2451, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Continental Aktiengesellscha Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Continental Aktiengesellscha
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Continental Aktiengesellscha. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Continental Aktiengesellscha's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Continental Aktiengesellscha Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Continental Aktiengesellscha is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Continental Aktiengesellscha's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Continental Aktiengesellschaft, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Continental Aktiengesellscha within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
Continental Aktiengesellscha Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Continental Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Continental Aktiengesellscha's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Continental Aktiengesellscha's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 200 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
Continental Aktiengesellscha Technical Analysis
Continental Aktiengesellscha's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Continental Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Continental Aktiengesellschaft. In general, you should focus on analyzing Continental Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Continental Aktiengesellscha Predictive Forecast Models
Continental Aktiengesellscha's time-series forecasting models is one of many Continental Aktiengesellscha's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Continental Aktiengesellscha's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Continental Aktiengesellscha in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Continental Aktiengesellscha's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Continental Aktiengesellscha options trading.
Additional Tools for Continental Stock Analysis
When running Continental Aktiengesellscha's price analysis, check to measure Continental Aktiengesellscha's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Continental Aktiengesellscha is operating at the current time. Most of Continental Aktiengesellscha's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Continental Aktiengesellscha's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Continental Aktiengesellscha's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Continental Aktiengesellscha to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.