Cocrystal Pharma Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.8
| COCP Stock | USD 3.09 0.61 24.60% |
Cocrystal |
Cocrystal Pharma Target Price Odds to finish below 1.8
The tendency of Cocrystal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.80 or more in 90 days |
| 3.09 | 90 days | 1.80 | about 24.73 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cocrystal Pharma to drop to $ 1.80 or more in 90 days from now is about 24.73 (This Cocrystal Pharma probability density function shows the probability of Cocrystal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cocrystal Pharma price to stay between $ 1.80 and its current price of $3.09 at the end of the 90-day period is about 75.17 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Cocrystal Pharma has a beta of -0.19 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Cocrystal Pharma are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Cocrystal Pharma is likely to outperform the market. Moreover Cocrystal Pharma has an alpha of 1.0809, implying that it can generate a 1.08 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cocrystal Pharma Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Cocrystal Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cocrystal Pharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cocrystal Pharma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cocrystal Pharma Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cocrystal Pharma is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cocrystal Pharma's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cocrystal Pharma, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cocrystal Pharma within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
Cocrystal Pharma Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cocrystal Pharma for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cocrystal Pharma can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cocrystal Pharma is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Cocrystal Pharma appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Cocrystal Pharma has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (17.98 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (8.79 M). | |
| Cocrystal Pharma currently holds about 51.03 M in cash with (14.67 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.28, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Cocrystal Pharma has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 32.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Cocrystal Pharma Price-to-Operating-Cash-Flow - GuruFocus.com |
Cocrystal Pharma Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cocrystal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cocrystal Pharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cocrystal Pharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 9.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 26.4 M |
Cocrystal Pharma Technical Analysis
Cocrystal Pharma's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cocrystal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cocrystal Pharma. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cocrystal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cocrystal Pharma Predictive Forecast Models
Cocrystal Pharma's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cocrystal Pharma's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cocrystal Pharma's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cocrystal Pharma
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cocrystal Pharma for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cocrystal Pharma help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cocrystal Pharma is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Cocrystal Pharma appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Cocrystal Pharma has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (17.98 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (8.79 M). | |
| Cocrystal Pharma currently holds about 51.03 M in cash with (14.67 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.28, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Cocrystal Pharma has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 32.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Cocrystal Pharma Price-to-Operating-Cash-Flow - GuruFocus.com |
Additional Tools for Cocrystal Stock Analysis
When running Cocrystal Pharma's price analysis, check to measure Cocrystal Pharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cocrystal Pharma is operating at the current time. Most of Cocrystal Pharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cocrystal Pharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cocrystal Pharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cocrystal Pharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.