Commonwealth Bank (Australia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 116.79
| CBA Stock | 155.99 3.74 2.34% |
Commonwealth |
Commonwealth Bank Target Price Odds to finish over 116.79
The tendency of Commonwealth Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 116.79 in 90 days |
| 155.99 | 90 days | 116.79 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Commonwealth Bank to stay above 116.79 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Commonwealth Bank probability density function shows the probability of Commonwealth Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Commonwealth Bank price to stay between 116.79 and its current price of 155.99 at the end of the 90-day period is about 82.78 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Commonwealth Bank has a beta of 0.35 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Commonwealth Bank average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Commonwealth Bank will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Commonwealth Bank has an alpha of 0.1102, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Commonwealth Bank Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Commonwealth Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commonwealth Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Commonwealth Bank Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Commonwealth Bank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Commonwealth Bank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Commonwealth Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Commonwealth Bank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Commonwealth Bank Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Commonwealth Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Commonwealth Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Commonwealth Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 48.1 B |
Commonwealth Bank Technical Analysis
Commonwealth Bank's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Commonwealth Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Commonwealth Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing Commonwealth Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Commonwealth Bank Predictive Forecast Models
Commonwealth Bank's time-series forecasting models is one of many Commonwealth Bank's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Commonwealth Bank's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Commonwealth Bank in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Commonwealth Bank's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Commonwealth Bank options trading.
Additional Tools for Commonwealth Stock Analysis
When running Commonwealth Bank's price analysis, check to measure Commonwealth Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commonwealth Bank is operating at the current time. Most of Commonwealth Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commonwealth Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commonwealth Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commonwealth Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.