Caci International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 437.75
| CACI Stock | USD 406.17 1.86 0.46% |
CACI |
CACI International Target Price Odds to finish below 437.75
The tendency of CACI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 437.75 after 90 days |
| 406.17 | 90 days | 437.75 | about 15.98 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CACI International to stay under $ 437.75 after 90 days from now is about 15.98 (This CACI International probability density function shows the probability of CACI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CACI International price to stay between its current price of $ 406.17 and $ 437.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.4 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days CACI International has a beta of 0.51 suggesting as returns on the market go up, CACI International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CACI International will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally CACI International has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. CACI International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CACI International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CACI International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CACI International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CACI International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CACI International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CACI International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CACI International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CACI International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.29 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 53.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
CACI International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CACI International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CACI International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| CACI International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| CACI International is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| CACI International has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: CACI International Earns Elite 5-Star Employer Status for Veteran Hiring Excellence - StockTitan |
CACI International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CACI Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CACI International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CACI International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 22.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 134 M |
CACI International Technical Analysis
CACI International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CACI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CACI International. In general, you should focus on analyzing CACI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CACI International Predictive Forecast Models
CACI International's time-series forecasting models is one of many CACI International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CACI International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CACI International
Checking the ongoing alerts about CACI International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CACI International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| CACI International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| CACI International is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| CACI International has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: CACI International Earns Elite 5-Star Employer Status for Veteran Hiring Excellence - StockTitan |
Check out CACI International Backtesting, CACI International Valuation, CACI International Correlation, CACI International Hype Analysis, CACI International Volatility, CACI International History as well as CACI International Performance. For more detail on how to invest in CACI Stock please use our How to Invest in CACI International guide.You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is IT Consulting & Other Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CACI International. If investors know CACI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CACI International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.418 | Earnings Share 20.19 | Revenue Per Share 352.836 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.112 | Return On Assets 0.0622 |
The market value of CACI International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CACI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CACI International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CACI International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CACI International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CACI International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CACI International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CACI International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CACI International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.