Baytex Energy Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.37
| BTE Stock | USD 2.65 0.07 2.71% |
Baytex |
Baytex Energy Target Price Odds to finish over 2.37
The tendency of Baytex Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 2.37 in 90 days |
| 2.65 | 90 days | 2.37 | under 95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Baytex Energy to stay above $ 2.37 in 90 days from now is under 95 (This Baytex Energy Corp probability density function shows the probability of Baytex Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Baytex Energy Corp price to stay between $ 2.37 and its current price of $2.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.99 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Baytex Energy has a beta of 0.35 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Baytex Energy average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Baytex Energy Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Baytex Energy Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Baytex Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Baytex Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Baytex Energy Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Baytex Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Baytex Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Baytex Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Baytex Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Baytex Energy Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Baytex Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Baytex Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Baytex Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Baytex Energy Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Baytex Energy Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Baytex Energy Corp has 2.44 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 4.72, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Baytex Energy Corp has a current ratio of 0.67, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Baytex to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| The entity reported the last year's revenue of 3.38 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (233.36 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.67 B. | |
| Baytex Energy Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Undervalued Small Caps With Insider Activity On TSX In December 2024 |
Baytex Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Baytex Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Baytex Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Baytex Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 704.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 55.8 M |
Baytex Energy Technical Analysis
Baytex Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Baytex Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Baytex Energy Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Baytex Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Baytex Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Baytex Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Baytex Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Baytex Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.