Bumi Resources (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 317.19
| BRMS Stock | IDR 398.00 16.00 3.86% |
Bumi |
Bumi Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 317.19
The tendency of Bumi Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 317.19 or more in 90 days |
| 398.00 | 90 days | 317.19 | about 55.13 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bumi Resources to drop to 317.19 or more in 90 days from now is about 55.13 (This Bumi Resources Minerals probability density function shows the probability of Bumi Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bumi Resources Minerals price to stay between 317.19 and its current price of 398.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.78 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.98 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Bumi Resources will likely underperform. Moreover Bumi Resources Minerals has an alpha of 1.3063, implying that it can generate a 1.31 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Bumi Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Bumi Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bumi Resources Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bumi Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bumi Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bumi Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bumi Resources Minerals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bumi Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.31 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.98 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 108.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.25 |
Bumi Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bumi Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bumi Resources Minerals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bumi Resources is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Bumi Resources appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Bumi Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bumi Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bumi Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bumi Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 114.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 60.4 M |
Bumi Resources Technical Analysis
Bumi Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bumi Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bumi Resources Minerals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bumi Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bumi Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Bumi Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Bumi Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bumi Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bumi Resources Minerals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bumi Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bumi Resources Minerals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bumi Resources is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Bumi Resources appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Bumi Stock
Bumi Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bumi Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bumi with respect to the benefits of owning Bumi Resources security.