Bank of Commerce (Philippines) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.53
| BNCOM Stock | 6.75 0.05 0.74% |
Bank |
Bank of Commerce Target Price Odds to finish below 4.53
The tendency of Bank Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 4.53 or more in 90 days |
| 6.75 | 90 days | 4.53 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bank of Commerce to drop to 4.53 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Bank of Commerce probability density function shows the probability of Bank Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bank of Commerce price to stay between 4.53 and its current price of 6.75 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.15 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Bank of Commerce has a beta of -0.15 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Bank of Commerce are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Bank of Commerce is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Bank of Commerce has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Bank of Commerce Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Bank of Commerce
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank of Commerce. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bank of Commerce Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bank of Commerce is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bank of Commerce's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bank of Commerce, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bank of Commerce within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.60 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Bank of Commerce Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bank of Commerce for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bank of Commerce can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Bank of Commerce generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Bank of Commerce has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years |
Bank of Commerce Technical Analysis
Bank of Commerce's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bank Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bank of Commerce. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bank Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Bank of Commerce Predictive Forecast Models
Bank of Commerce's time-series forecasting models is one of many Bank of Commerce's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Bank of Commerce's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Bank of Commerce
Checking the ongoing alerts about Bank of Commerce for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bank of Commerce help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Bank of Commerce generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Bank of Commerce has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years |
Additional Tools for Bank Stock Analysis
When running Bank of Commerce's price analysis, check to measure Bank of Commerce's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bank of Commerce is operating at the current time. Most of Bank of Commerce's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bank of Commerce's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bank of Commerce's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bank of Commerce to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.