Booking Holdings (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 103.01
| BKNG34 Stock | BRL 178.02 3.52 1.94% |
Booking |
Booking Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 103.01
The tendency of Booking Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 103.01 or more in 90 days |
| 178.02 | 90 days | 103.01 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Booking Holdings to drop to R$ 103.01 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Booking Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Booking Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Booking Holdings price to stay between R$ 103.01 and its current price of R$178.02 at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.97 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Booking Holdings has a beta of 0.48 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Booking Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Booking Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Booking Holdings has an alpha of 0.4782, implying that it can generate a 0.48 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Booking Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Booking Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Booking Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Booking Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Booking Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Booking Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Booking Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Booking Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.48 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.48 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 19.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.24 |
Booking Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Booking Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Booking Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Booking Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.2 B |
Booking Holdings Technical Analysis
Booking Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Booking Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Booking Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Booking Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Booking Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Booking Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Booking Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Booking Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Booking Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Booking Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Booking Holdings options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Booking Stock
When determining whether Booking Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Booking Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Booking Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Booking Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Booking Holdings Backtesting, Booking Holdings Valuation, Booking Holdings Correlation, Booking Holdings Hype Analysis, Booking Holdings Volatility, Booking Holdings History as well as Booking Holdings Performance. For information on how to trade Booking Stock refer to our How to Trade Booking Stock guide.You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.