Aytu Bioscience Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.5
| AYTU Stock | USD 1.50 0.05 3.45% |
Aytu |
Aytu BioScience Target Price Odds to finish below 1.5
The tendency of Aytu Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 1.50 | 90 days | 1.50 | about 13.93 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aytu BioScience to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 13.93 (This Aytu BioScience probability density function shows the probability of Aytu Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Aytu BioScience has a beta of 0.82. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aytu BioScience average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aytu BioScience will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aytu BioScience has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Aytu BioScience Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aytu BioScience
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aytu BioScience. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aytu BioScience's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aytu BioScience Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aytu BioScience is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aytu BioScience's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aytu BioScience, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aytu BioScience within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.63 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.82 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.37 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Aytu BioScience Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aytu BioScience for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aytu BioScience can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aytu BioScience generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aytu BioScience may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Aytu BioScience has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Aytu BioScience has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 81 M. Net Loss for the year was (15.84 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 66.63 M. | |
| Aytu BioScience currently holds about 23.81 M in cash with (1.39 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.38. | |
| Aytu BioScience has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures |
Aytu BioScience Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aytu Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aytu BioScience's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aytu BioScience's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 20 M |
Aytu BioScience Technical Analysis
Aytu BioScience's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aytu Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aytu BioScience. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aytu Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aytu BioScience Predictive Forecast Models
Aytu BioScience's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aytu BioScience's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aytu BioScience's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aytu BioScience
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aytu BioScience for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aytu BioScience help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aytu BioScience generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aytu BioScience may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Aytu BioScience has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Aytu BioScience has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 81 M. Net Loss for the year was (15.84 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 66.63 M. | |
| Aytu BioScience currently holds about 23.81 M in cash with (1.39 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.38. | |
| Aytu BioScience has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures |
Additional Tools for Aytu Stock Analysis
When running Aytu BioScience's price analysis, check to measure Aytu BioScience's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aytu BioScience is operating at the current time. Most of Aytu BioScience's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aytu BioScience's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aytu BioScience's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aytu BioScience to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.