American Express (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 136.27
| AXPB34 Stock | BRL 182.79 2.14 1.16% |
American |
American Express Target Price Odds to finish below 136.27
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 136.27 or more in 90 days |
| 182.79 | 90 days | 136.27 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Express to drop to R$ 136.27 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This American Express probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Express price to stay between R$ 136.27 and its current price of R$182.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.42 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon American Express has a beta of 0.15. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American Express average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Express will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American Express has an alpha of 0.37, implying that it can generate a 0.37 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). American Express Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for American Express
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Express. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.American Express Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Express is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Express' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Express, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Express within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 13.86 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
American Express Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Express' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Express' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 743 M |
American Express Technical Analysis
American Express' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Express. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Express Predictive Forecast Models
American Express' time-series forecasting models is one of many American Express' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Express' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Express in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Express' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Express options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in American Stock
When determining whether American Express is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if American Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about American Express Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about American Express Stock:Check out American Express Backtesting, American Express Valuation, American Express Correlation, American Express Hype Analysis, American Express Volatility, American Express History as well as American Express Performance. For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.