Columbia Government Mortgage Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 16.70
| AUGCX Fund | USD 17.96 0.03 0.17% |
Columbia |
Columbia Government Target Price Odds to finish below 16.70
The tendency of Columbia Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 16.70 or more in 90 days |
| 17.96 | 90 days | 16.70 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Columbia Government to drop to $ 16.70 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Columbia Government Mortgage probability density function shows the probability of Columbia Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Columbia Government price to stay between $ 16.70 and its current price of $17.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 37.58 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Columbia Government Mortgage has a beta of -0.0319. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Columbia Government are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Columbia Government Mortgage is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Columbia Government Mortgage has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Columbia Government Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Columbia Government
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Columbia Government. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Columbia Government's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Columbia Government Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Columbia Government is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Columbia Government's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Columbia Government Mortgage, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Columbia Government within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.44 |
Columbia Government Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Columbia Government for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Columbia Government can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Columbia Government generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Columbia Government generated five year return of -2.0% | |
| This fund holds about 8.28% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Columbia Government Technical Analysis
Columbia Government's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Columbia Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Columbia Government Mortgage. In general, you should focus on analyzing Columbia Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Columbia Government Predictive Forecast Models
Columbia Government's time-series forecasting models is one of many Columbia Government's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Columbia Government's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Columbia Government
Checking the ongoing alerts about Columbia Government for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Columbia Government help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Columbia Government generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Columbia Government generated five year return of -2.0% | |
| This fund holds about 8.28% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Columbia Mutual Fund
Columbia Government financial ratios help investors to determine whether Columbia Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Columbia with respect to the benefits of owning Columbia Government security.
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