Alphatec Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 9.52
| ATEC Stock | USD 9.34 0.49 5.54% |
Alphatec |
Alphatec Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 9.52
The tendency of Alphatec Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 9.52 or more in 90 days |
| 9.34 | 90 days | 9.52 | about 16.59 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alphatec Holdings to move over $ 9.52 or more in 90 days from now is about 16.59 (This Alphatec Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Alphatec Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alphatec Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 9.34 and $ 9.52 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.3 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Alphatec Holdings has a beta of 0.7. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alphatec Holdings average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alphatec Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alphatec Holdings has an alpha of 0.6849, implying that it can generate a 0.68 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alphatec Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alphatec Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alphatec Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alphatec Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alphatec Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alphatec Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alphatec Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alphatec Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alphatec Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.68 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.70 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Alphatec Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alphatec Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alphatec Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alphatec Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Alphatec Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 482.26 M. Net Loss for the year was (186.64 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 233.06 M. | |
| Alphatec Holdings currently holds about 107.47 M in cash with (78.48 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.03. | |
| Alphatec Holdings has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 58.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Alphatec Holdings NASDAQATEC shareholders incur further losses as stock declines 9.0 percent this week, taking one-year losses to |
Alphatec Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alphatec Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alphatec Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alphatec Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 121.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 221 M |
Alphatec Holdings Technical Analysis
Alphatec Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alphatec Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alphatec Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alphatec Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alphatec Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Alphatec Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Alphatec Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alphatec Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alphatec Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alphatec Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alphatec Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alphatec Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Alphatec Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 482.26 M. Net Loss for the year was (186.64 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 233.06 M. | |
| Alphatec Holdings currently holds about 107.47 M in cash with (78.48 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.03. | |
| Alphatec Holdings has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 58.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Alphatec Holdings NASDAQATEC shareholders incur further losses as stock declines 9.0 percent this week, taking one-year losses to |
Check out Alphatec Holdings Backtesting, Alphatec Holdings Valuation, Alphatec Holdings Correlation, Alphatec Holdings Hype Analysis, Alphatec Holdings Volatility, Alphatec Holdings History as well as Alphatec Holdings Performance. For information on how to trade Alphatec Stock refer to our How to Trade Alphatec Stock guide.You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alphatec Holdings. If investors know Alphatec will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alphatec Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.26) | Revenue Per Share 4.083 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.274 | Return On Assets (0.12) | Return On Equity (211.37) |
The market value of Alphatec Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alphatec that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alphatec Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alphatec Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alphatec Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alphatec Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alphatec Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alphatec Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alphatec Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.