Apollo Commercial Real Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 13.81
| ARI Stock | USD 9.30 0.03 0.32% |
Apollo |
Apollo Commercial Target Price Odds to finish over 13.81
The tendency of Apollo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 13.81 or more in 90 days |
| 9.30 | 90 days | 13.81 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Apollo Commercial to move over $ 13.81 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Apollo Commercial Real probability density function shows the probability of Apollo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Apollo Commercial Real price to stay between its current price of $ 9.30 and $ 13.81 at the end of the 90-day period is about 42.94 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Apollo Commercial has a beta of 0.45. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Apollo Commercial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Apollo Commercial Real will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Apollo Commercial Real has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Apollo Commercial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Apollo Commercial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Apollo Commercial Real. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Apollo Commercial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Apollo Commercial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Apollo Commercial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Apollo Commercial Real, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Apollo Commercial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.45 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
Apollo Commercial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Apollo Commercial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Apollo Commercial Real can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Apollo Commercial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Apollo Commercial has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 66.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of October 2024 Apollo Commercial paid $ 0.25 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Q3 2024 Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc Earnings Call Transcript |
Apollo Commercial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Apollo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Apollo Commercial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Apollo Commercial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 141.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 225.4 M |
Apollo Commercial Technical Analysis
Apollo Commercial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Apollo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Apollo Commercial Real. In general, you should focus on analyzing Apollo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Apollo Commercial Predictive Forecast Models
Apollo Commercial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Apollo Commercial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Apollo Commercial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Apollo Commercial Real
Checking the ongoing alerts about Apollo Commercial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Apollo Commercial Real help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Apollo Commercial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Apollo Commercial has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 66.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of October 2024 Apollo Commercial paid $ 0.25 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Q3 2024 Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc Earnings Call Transcript |
Check out Apollo Commercial Backtesting, Apollo Commercial Valuation, Apollo Commercial Correlation, Apollo Commercial Hype Analysis, Apollo Commercial Volatility, Apollo Commercial History as well as Apollo Commercial Performance. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Apollo Commercial. If investors know Apollo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Apollo Commercial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | Dividend Share 1.3 | Earnings Share (0.94) | Revenue Per Share 1.147 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) |
The market value of Apollo Commercial Real is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Apollo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Apollo Commercial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Apollo Commercial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Apollo Commercial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Apollo Commercial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Apollo Commercial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Apollo Commercial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Apollo Commercial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.