Argo Group 65 Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 19.15
| ARGD Stock | USD 21.70 0.01 0.05% |
Argo |
Argo Group Target Price Odds to finish below 19.15
The tendency of Argo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 19.15 or more in 90 days |
| 21.70 | 90 days | 19.15 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Argo Group to drop to $ 19.15 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Argo Group 65 probability density function shows the probability of Argo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Argo Group 65 price to stay between $ 19.15 and its current price of $21.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.83 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Argo Group has a beta of 0.0049. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Argo Group average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Argo Group 65 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Argo Group 65 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Argo Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Argo Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Argo Group 65. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Argo Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Argo Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Argo Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Argo Group 65, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Argo Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Argo Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Argo Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Argo Group 65 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Argo Group 65 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.75 B. Net Loss for the year was (175.2 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| On 16th of December 2024 Argo Group paid $ 0.4063 per share dividend to its current shareholders |
Argo Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Argo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Argo Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Argo Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -33.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Argo Group Technical Analysis
Argo Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Argo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Argo Group 65. In general, you should focus on analyzing Argo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Argo Group Predictive Forecast Models
Argo Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Argo Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Argo Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Argo Group 65
Checking the ongoing alerts about Argo Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Argo Group 65 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Argo Group 65 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.75 B. Net Loss for the year was (175.2 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| On 16th of December 2024 Argo Group paid $ 0.4063 per share dividend to its current shareholders |
Check out Argo Group Backtesting, Argo Group Valuation, Argo Group Correlation, Argo Group Hype Analysis, Argo Group Volatility, Argo Group History as well as Argo Group Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Argo Group. If investors know Argo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Argo Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Argo Group 65 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Argo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Argo Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Argo Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Argo Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Argo Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Argo Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Argo Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Argo Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.