ACL Plastics (Sri Lanka) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 435.75

APLAN0000   520.00  1.00  0.19%   
ACL Plastics' future price is the expected price of ACL Plastics instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of ACL Plastics PLC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out ACL Plastics Backtesting, ACL Plastics Valuation, ACL Plastics Correlation, ACL Plastics Hype Analysis, ACL Plastics Volatility, ACL Plastics History as well as ACL Plastics Performance.
  
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ACL Plastics Target Price Odds to finish below 435.75

The tendency of ACL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  435.75  or more in 90 days
 520.00 90 days 435.75 
about 38.57
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ACL Plastics to drop to  435.75  or more in 90 days from now is about 38.57 (This ACL Plastics PLC probability density function shows the probability of ACL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ACL Plastics PLC price to stay between  435.75  and its current price of 520.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 59.67 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ACL Plastics has a beta of 0.0081. This suggests as returns on the market go up, ACL Plastics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ACL Plastics PLC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ACL Plastics PLC has an alpha of 0.3973, implying that it can generate a 0.4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   ACL Plastics Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for ACL Plastics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ACL Plastics PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
518.54520.00521.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
468.00557.89559.35
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
531.10532.55534.01
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
424.28477.79531.31
Details

ACL Plastics Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ACL Plastics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ACL Plastics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ACL Plastics PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ACL Plastics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.40
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.01
σ
Overall volatility
34.63
Ir
Information ratio 0.22

ACL Plastics Technical Analysis

ACL Plastics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ACL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ACL Plastics PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing ACL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

ACL Plastics Predictive Forecast Models

ACL Plastics' time-series forecasting models is one of many ACL Plastics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ACL Plastics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ACL Plastics in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ACL Plastics' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ACL Plastics options trading.

Other Information on Investing in ACL Stock

ACL Plastics financial ratios help investors to determine whether ACL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ACL with respect to the benefits of owning ACL Plastics security.