American Outdoor Brands Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 15.09
| AOUT Stock | USD 15.30 0.21 1.39% |
American |
American Outdoor Target Price Odds to finish below 15.09
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 15.09 or more in 90 days |
| 15.30 | 90 days | 15.09 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Outdoor to drop to $ 15.09 or more in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This American Outdoor Brands probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Outdoor Brands price to stay between $ 15.09 and its current price of $15.3 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days American Outdoor has a beta of 0.0879. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American Outdoor average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Outdoor Brands will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American Outdoor Brands has an alpha of 0.8231, implying that it can generate a 0.82 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). American Outdoor Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for American Outdoor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Outdoor Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Outdoor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Outdoor Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Outdoor is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Outdoor's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Outdoor Brands, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Outdoor within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.82 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.24 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.22 |
American Outdoor Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Outdoor for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Outdoor Brands can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| American Outdoor appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 201.1 M. Net Loss for the year was (12.25 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 88.06 M. | |
| About 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Short Interest in American Outdoor Brands, Inc. Declines By 17.7 |
American Outdoor Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Outdoor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Outdoor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 29.7 M |
American Outdoor Technical Analysis
American Outdoor's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Outdoor Brands. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Outdoor Predictive Forecast Models
American Outdoor's time-series forecasting models is one of many American Outdoor's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Outdoor's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American Outdoor Brands
Checking the ongoing alerts about American Outdoor for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Outdoor Brands help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| American Outdoor appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 201.1 M. Net Loss for the year was (12.25 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 88.06 M. | |
| About 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Short Interest in American Outdoor Brands, Inc. Declines By 17.7 |
Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis
When running American Outdoor's price analysis, check to measure American Outdoor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Outdoor is operating at the current time. Most of American Outdoor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Outdoor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Outdoor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Outdoor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.