Abercrombie Fitch Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 161.65
| ANF Stock | USD 153.88 1.46 0.94% |
Abercrombie |
Abercrombie Fitch Target Price Odds to finish over 161.65
The tendency of Abercrombie Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 161.65 or more in 90 days |
| 153.88 | 90 days | 161.65 | roughly 2.4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Abercrombie Fitch to move over $ 161.65 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.4 (This Abercrombie Fitch probability density function shows the probability of Abercrombie Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Abercrombie Fitch price to stay between its current price of $ 153.88 and $ 161.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.88 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Abercrombie Fitch has a beta of 0.41. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Abercrombie Fitch average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Abercrombie Fitch will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Abercrombie Fitch has an alpha of 0.2038, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Abercrombie Fitch Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Abercrombie Fitch
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Abercrombie Fitch. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Abercrombie Fitch Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Abercrombie Fitch is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Abercrombie Fitch's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Abercrombie Fitch, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Abercrombie Fitch within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Abercrombie Fitch Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Abercrombie Fitch for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Abercrombie Fitch can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Abercrombie Fitch had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Abercrombie Up 2.4 percent Since Last Earnings Report Can It Continue |
Abercrombie Fitch Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Abercrombie Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Abercrombie Fitch's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Abercrombie Fitch's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 52.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 900.9 M |
Abercrombie Fitch Technical Analysis
Abercrombie Fitch's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Abercrombie Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Abercrombie Fitch. In general, you should focus on analyzing Abercrombie Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Abercrombie Fitch Predictive Forecast Models
Abercrombie Fitch's time-series forecasting models is one of many Abercrombie Fitch's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Abercrombie Fitch's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Abercrombie Fitch
Checking the ongoing alerts about Abercrombie Fitch for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Abercrombie Fitch help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Abercrombie Fitch had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Abercrombie Up 2.4 percent Since Last Earnings Report Can It Continue |
Check out Abercrombie Fitch Backtesting, Abercrombie Fitch Valuation, Abercrombie Fitch Correlation, Abercrombie Fitch Hype Analysis, Abercrombie Fitch Volatility, Abercrombie Fitch History as well as Abercrombie Fitch Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Abercrombie Stock please use our How to Invest in Abercrombie Fitch guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Abercrombie Fitch. If investors know Abercrombie will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Abercrombie Fitch listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.273 | Earnings Share 10.09 | Revenue Per Share 91.796 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.212 | Return On Assets 0.1435 |
The market value of Abercrombie Fitch is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Abercrombie that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Abercrombie Fitch's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Abercrombie Fitch's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Abercrombie Fitch's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Abercrombie Fitch's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Abercrombie Fitch's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Abercrombie Fitch is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Abercrombie Fitch's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.