Ambow Education Holding Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.01
| AMBO Stock | USD 3.47 1.23 54.91% |
Ambow |
Ambow Education Target Price Odds to finish over 2.01
The tendency of Ambow Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 2.01 in 90 days |
| 3.47 | 90 days | 2.01 | about 30.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ambow Education to stay above $ 2.01 in 90 days from now is about 30.85 (This Ambow Education Holding probability density function shows the probability of Ambow Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ambow Education Holding price to stay between $ 2.01 and its current price of $3.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.76 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.46 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Ambow Education will likely underperform. In addition to that Ambow Education Holding has an alpha of 4.0558, implying that it can generate a 4.06 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ambow Education Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ambow Education
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ambow Education Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ambow Education Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ambow Education is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ambow Education's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ambow Education Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ambow Education within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 4.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.46 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Ambow Education Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ambow Education for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ambow Education Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ambow Education is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Ambow Education appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Ambow Education has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Ambow Education Holding currently holds 10.77 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 4.45, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ambow Education Holding has a current ratio of 0.67, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Ambow Education's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 9.16 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.17 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (581 K). | |
| Ambow Education Holding currently holds about 140.33 M in cash with (290 K) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.39, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Ambow Education has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Ambow Education Surges Over 35 percent Pre-Market on Accounting Firm Change |
Ambow Education Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ambow Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ambow Education's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ambow Education's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.8 M |
Ambow Education Technical Analysis
Ambow Education's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ambow Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ambow Education Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ambow Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ambow Education Predictive Forecast Models
Ambow Education's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ambow Education's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ambow Education's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ambow Education Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ambow Education for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ambow Education Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ambow Education is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Ambow Education appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Ambow Education has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Ambow Education Holding currently holds 10.77 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 4.45, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ambow Education Holding has a current ratio of 0.67, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Ambow Education's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 9.16 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.17 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (581 K). | |
| Ambow Education Holding currently holds about 140.33 M in cash with (290 K) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.39, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Ambow Education has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Ambow Education Surges Over 35 percent Pre-Market on Accounting Firm Change |
Check out Ambow Education Backtesting, Ambow Education Valuation, Ambow Education Correlation, Ambow Education Hype Analysis, Ambow Education Volatility, Ambow Education History as well as Ambow Education Performance. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
Is Diversified Consumer Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ambow Education. If investors know Ambow will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ambow Education listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.361 | Earnings Share (1.20) | Revenue Per Share 3.253 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.40) | Return On Assets (0.12) |
The market value of Ambow Education Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ambow that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ambow Education's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ambow Education's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ambow Education's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ambow Education's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ambow Education's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ambow Education is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ambow Education's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.