Alumis Common Stock Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.4
| ALMS Stock | 8.41 0.37 4.60% |
Alumis |
Alumis Common Target Price Odds to finish below 9.4
The tendency of Alumis Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 9.40 after 90 days |
| 8.41 | 90 days | 9.40 | about 26.39 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alumis Common to stay under 9.40 after 90 days from now is about 26.39 (This Alumis Common Stock probability density function shows the probability of Alumis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alumis Common Stock price to stay between its current price of 8.41 and 9.40 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.4 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Alumis Common has a beta of 0.28. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alumis Common average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alumis Common Stock will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alumis Common Stock has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Alumis Common Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alumis Common
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alumis Common Stock. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alumis Common Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alumis Common is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alumis Common's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alumis Common Stock, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alumis Common within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.49 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.40 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Alumis Common Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alumis Common for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alumis Common Stock can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alumis Common Stock generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alumis Common Stock has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Net Loss for the year was (154.99 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Alumis Common generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| Alumis Common Stock has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Alumis Announces Positive Phase 1 Data for CNS Penetrant TYK2 Inhibitor, A-005 |
Alumis Common Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alumis Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alumis Common's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alumis Common's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 51.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49 M |
Alumis Common Technical Analysis
Alumis Common's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alumis Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alumis Common Stock. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alumis Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alumis Common Predictive Forecast Models
Alumis Common's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alumis Common's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alumis Common's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alumis Common Stock
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alumis Common for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alumis Common Stock help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alumis Common Stock generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alumis Common Stock has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Net Loss for the year was (154.99 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Alumis Common generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| Alumis Common Stock has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Alumis Announces Positive Phase 1 Data for CNS Penetrant TYK2 Inhibitor, A-005 |
Additional Tools for Alumis Stock Analysis
When running Alumis Common's price analysis, check to measure Alumis Common's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alumis Common is operating at the current time. Most of Alumis Common's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alumis Common's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alumis Common's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alumis Common to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.