MGI Digital (France) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.64
| ALMDG Stock | EUR 14.52 0.24 1.63% |
MGI |
MGI Digital Target Price Odds to finish below 14.64
The tendency of MGI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 14.64 after 90 days |
| 14.52 | 90 days | 14.64 | about 10.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MGI Digital to stay under € 14.64 after 90 days from now is about 10.81 (This MGI Digital probability density function shows the probability of MGI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MGI Digital price to stay between its current price of € 14.52 and € 14.64 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.61 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon MGI Digital has a beta of 0.12. This suggests as returns on the market go up, MGI Digital average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding MGI Digital will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally MGI Digital has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. MGI Digital Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MGI Digital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MGI Digital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MGI Digital Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MGI Digital is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MGI Digital's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MGI Digital, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MGI Digital within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.78 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
MGI Digital Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MGI Digital for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MGI Digital can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MGI Digital generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
MGI Digital Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MGI Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MGI Digital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MGI Digital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 43.3 M |
MGI Digital Technical Analysis
MGI Digital's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MGI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MGI Digital. In general, you should focus on analyzing MGI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MGI Digital Predictive Forecast Models
MGI Digital's time-series forecasting models is one of many MGI Digital's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MGI Digital's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MGI Digital
Checking the ongoing alerts about MGI Digital for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MGI Digital help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MGI Digital generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Additional Tools for MGI Stock Analysis
When running MGI Digital's price analysis, check to measure MGI Digital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MGI Digital is operating at the current time. Most of MGI Digital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MGI Digital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MGI Digital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MGI Digital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.