Alefarm Brewing (Denmark) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.48
| ALEFRM Stock | DKK 1.41 0.05 3.68% |
Alefarm |
Alefarm Brewing Target Price Odds to finish below 1.48
The tendency of Alefarm Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under kr 1.48 after 90 days |
| 1.41 | 90 days | 1.48 | about 15.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alefarm Brewing to stay under kr 1.48 after 90 days from now is about 15.75 (This Alefarm Brewing AS probability density function shows the probability of Alefarm Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alefarm Brewing AS price to stay between its current price of kr 1.41 and kr 1.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.41 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alefarm Brewing AS has a beta of -0.64. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Alefarm Brewing are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Alefarm Brewing AS is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Alefarm Brewing AS has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Alefarm Brewing Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alefarm Brewing
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alefarm Brewing AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alefarm Brewing Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alefarm Brewing is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alefarm Brewing's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alefarm Brewing AS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alefarm Brewing within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.64 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.10 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Alefarm Brewing Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alefarm Brewing for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alefarm Brewing AS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alefarm Brewing AS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alefarm Brewing AS may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Alefarm Brewing AS has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Alefarm Brewing AS has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 8.65 M. Net Loss for the year was (2.65 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.62 M. | |
| Alefarm Brewing generates negative cash flow from operations |
Alefarm Brewing Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alefarm Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alefarm Brewing's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alefarm Brewing's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.4 M |
Alefarm Brewing Technical Analysis
Alefarm Brewing's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alefarm Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alefarm Brewing AS. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alefarm Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alefarm Brewing Predictive Forecast Models
Alefarm Brewing's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alefarm Brewing's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alefarm Brewing's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alefarm Brewing AS
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alefarm Brewing for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alefarm Brewing AS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alefarm Brewing AS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alefarm Brewing AS may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Alefarm Brewing AS has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Alefarm Brewing AS has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 8.65 M. Net Loss for the year was (2.65 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.62 M. | |
| Alefarm Brewing generates negative cash flow from operations |
Other Information on Investing in Alefarm Stock
Alefarm Brewing financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alefarm Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alefarm with respect to the benefits of owning Alefarm Brewing security.