Air Liquide (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 168.26
| AIL Stock | 179.70 2.26 1.27% |
Air |
Air Liquide Target Price Odds to finish below 168.26
The tendency of Air Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 168.26 or more in 90 days |
| 179.70 | 90 days | 168.26 | about 61.29 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Air Liquide to drop to 168.26 or more in 90 days from now is about 61.29 (This Air Liquide SA probability density function shows the probability of Air Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Air Liquide SA price to stay between 168.26 and its current price of 179.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.81 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Air Liquide has a beta of 0.0597. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Air Liquide average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Air Liquide SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Air Liquide SA has an alpha of 0.1593, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Air Liquide Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Air Liquide
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Air Liquide SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Air Liquide's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Air Liquide Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Air Liquide is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Air Liquide's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Air Liquide SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Air Liquide within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.26 |
Air Liquide Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Air Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Air Liquide's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Air Liquide's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 474.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 B |
Air Liquide Technical Analysis
Air Liquide's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Air Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Air Liquide SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Air Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Air Liquide Predictive Forecast Models
Air Liquide's time-series forecasting models is one of many Air Liquide's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Air Liquide's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Air Liquide in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Air Liquide's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Air Liquide options trading.
Additional Tools for Air Stock Analysis
When running Air Liquide's price analysis, check to measure Air Liquide's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Air Liquide is operating at the current time. Most of Air Liquide's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Air Liquide's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Air Liquide's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Air Liquide to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.