Affirm Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 65.48

AFRM Stock  USD 72.00  1.24  1.75%   
Affirm Holdings' future price is the expected price of Affirm Holdings instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Affirm Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Affirm Holdings Backtesting, Affirm Holdings Valuation, Affirm Holdings Correlation, Affirm Holdings Hype Analysis, Affirm Holdings Volatility, Affirm Holdings History as well as Affirm Holdings Performance.
To learn how to invest in Affirm Stock, please use our How to Invest in Affirm Holdings guide.
  
At this time, Affirm Holdings' Price Book Value Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 4th of December 2024, Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is likely to grow to 21.56, while Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop (18.74). Please specify Affirm Holdings' target price for which you would like Affirm Holdings odds to be computed.

Affirm Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 65.48

The tendency of Affirm Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 65.48  or more in 90 days
 72.00 90 days 65.48 
roughly 97.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Affirm Holdings to drop to $ 65.48  or more in 90 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This Affirm Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Affirm Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Affirm Holdings price to stay between $ 65.48  and its current price of $72.0 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.77 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.84 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Affirm Holdings will likely underperform. Additionally Affirm Holdings has an alpha of 0.5327, implying that it can generate a 0.53 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Affirm Holdings Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Affirm Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Affirm Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
66.3571.2976.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
40.9445.8879.20
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
66.2171.1576.10
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.3914.7116.33
Details

Affirm Holdings Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Affirm Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Affirm Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Affirm Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Affirm Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.53
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.84
σ
Overall volatility
9.61
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

Affirm Holdings Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Affirm Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Affirm Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Affirm Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.32 B. Net Loss for the year was (517.76 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.01 B.
Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from businesswire.com: Affirm to Webcast CFO Fireside Chat on December 13, 2024

Affirm Holdings Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Affirm Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Affirm Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Affirm Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding309.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.1 B

Affirm Holdings Technical Analysis

Affirm Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Affirm Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Affirm Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Affirm Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Affirm Holdings Predictive Forecast Models

Affirm Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Affirm Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Affirm Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Affirm Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about Affirm Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Affirm Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Affirm Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.32 B. Net Loss for the year was (517.76 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.01 B.
Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from businesswire.com: Affirm to Webcast CFO Fireside Chat on December 13, 2024
When determining whether Affirm Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Affirm Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Affirm Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Affirm Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Is Data Processing & Outsourced Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Affirm Holdings. If investors know Affirm will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Affirm Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(1.41)
Revenue Per Share
8.055
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.407
Return On Assets
(0.04)
Return On Equity
(0.17)
The market value of Affirm Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Affirm that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Affirm Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Affirm Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Affirm Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Affirm Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Affirm Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Affirm Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Affirm Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.