Africa Energy (Sweden) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0

AEC Stock  SEK 0.20  0.01  4.76%   
Africa Energy's future price is the expected price of Africa Energy instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Africa Energy Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Africa Energy Backtesting, Africa Energy Valuation, Africa Energy Correlation, Africa Energy Hype Analysis, Africa Energy Volatility, Africa Energy History as well as Africa Energy Performance.
  
Please specify Africa Energy's target price for which you would like Africa Energy odds to be computed.

Africa Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 0

The tendency of Africa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to kr 0.00  or more in 90 days
 0.20 90 days 0.00 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Africa Energy to drop to kr 0.00  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Africa Energy Corp probability density function shows the probability of Africa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Africa Energy Corp price to stay between kr 0.00  and its current price of kr0.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 72.13 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Africa Energy has a beta of 0.45. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Africa Energy average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Africa Energy Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Africa Energy Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Africa Energy Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Africa Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Africa Energy Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.010.203.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.010.163.81
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
00.203.86
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
0.190.200.21
Details

Africa Energy Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Africa Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Africa Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Africa Energy Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Africa Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.15
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.45
σ
Overall volatility
0.02
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Africa Energy Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Africa Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Africa Energy Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Africa Energy Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Africa Energy Corp has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Africa Energy Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Africa Energy Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Africa Energy Corp has accumulated about 13.86 M in cash with (4.04 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.01.
Roughly 56.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Africa Energy Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Africa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Africa Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Africa Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.4 B
Cash And Short Term Investments10.9 M

Africa Energy Technical Analysis

Africa Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Africa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Africa Energy Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Africa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Africa Energy Predictive Forecast Models

Africa Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Africa Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Africa Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Africa Energy Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Africa Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Africa Energy Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Africa Energy Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Africa Energy Corp has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Africa Energy Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Africa Energy Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Africa Energy Corp has accumulated about 13.86 M in cash with (4.04 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.01.
Roughly 56.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Additional Tools for Africa Stock Analysis

When running Africa Energy's price analysis, check to measure Africa Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Africa Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Africa Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Africa Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Africa Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Africa Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.