Automatic Data (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 74.41
| ADPR34 Stock | BRL 76.42 0.54 0.70% |
Automatic |
Automatic Data Target Price Odds to finish below 74.41
The tendency of Automatic Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 74.41 or more in 90 days |
| 76.42 | 90 days | 74.41 | more than 93.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Automatic Data to drop to R$ 74.41 or more in 90 days from now is more than 93.0 (This Automatic Data Processing probability density function shows the probability of Automatic Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Automatic Data Processing price to stay between R$ 74.41 and its current price of R$76.42 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.29 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Automatic Data has a beta of 0.0634. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Automatic Data average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Automatic Data Processing will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Automatic Data Processing has an alpha of 0.2816, implying that it can generate a 0.28 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Automatic Data Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Automatic Data
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Automatic Data Processing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Automatic Data Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Automatic Data is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Automatic Data's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Automatic Data Processing, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Automatic Data within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.28 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Automatic Data Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Automatic Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Automatic Data's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Automatic Data's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 416.1 M |
Automatic Data Technical Analysis
Automatic Data's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Automatic Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Automatic Data Processing. In general, you should focus on analyzing Automatic Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Automatic Data Predictive Forecast Models
Automatic Data's time-series forecasting models is one of many Automatic Data's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Automatic Data's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Automatic Data in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Automatic Data's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Automatic Data options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Automatic Stock
When determining whether Automatic Data Processing is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Automatic Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Automatic Data Processing Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Automatic Data Processing Stock:Check out Automatic Data Backtesting, Automatic Data Valuation, Automatic Data Correlation, Automatic Data Hype Analysis, Automatic Data Volatility, Automatic Data History as well as Automatic Data Performance. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..