Air China (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.57
| AD2 Stock | EUR 0.61 0.02 3.17% |
Air |
Air China Target Price Odds to finish below 0.57
The tendency of Air Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 0.57 or more in 90 days |
| 0.61 | 90 days | 0.57 | about 75.12 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Air China to drop to € 0.57 or more in 90 days from now is about 75.12 (This Air China Limited probability density function shows the probability of Air Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Air China Limited price to stay between € 0.57 and its current price of €0.61 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.78 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Air China has a beta of 0.32. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Air China average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Air China Limited will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Air China Limited has an alpha of 0.8917, implying that it can generate a 0.89 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Air China Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Air China
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Air China Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Air China Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Air China is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Air China's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Air China Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Air China within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.89 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.18 |
Air China Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Air China for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Air China Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Air China Limited has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Air China Limited appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Air China Limited has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Air China Limited has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Air China Limited has accumulated 53.12 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 121.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Air China Limited has a current ratio of 0.3, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Air China until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Air China's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Air China Limited sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Air to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Air China's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 74.53 B. Net Loss for the year was (16.64 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (11.36 B). | |
| About 63.0% of Air China shares are held by company insiders |
Air China Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Air Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Air China's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Air China's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.5 B |
Air China Technical Analysis
Air China's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Air Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Air China Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Air Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Air China Predictive Forecast Models
Air China's time-series forecasting models is one of many Air China's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Air China's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Air China Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about Air China for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Air China Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Air China Limited has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Air China Limited appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Air China Limited has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Air China Limited has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Air China Limited has accumulated 53.12 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 121.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Air China Limited has a current ratio of 0.3, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Air China until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Air China's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Air China Limited sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Air to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Air China's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 74.53 B. Net Loss for the year was (16.64 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (11.36 B). | |
| About 63.0% of Air China shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Air Stock
Air China financial ratios help investors to determine whether Air Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Air with respect to the benefits of owning Air China security.