Alfalah Consumer (Pakistan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.23
| ACIETF Stock | 14.42 0.47 3.16% |
Alfalah |
Alfalah Consumer Target Price Odds to finish below 12.23
The tendency of Alfalah Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 12.23 or more in 90 days |
| 14.42 | 90 days | 12.23 | about 57.36 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alfalah Consumer to drop to 12.23 or more in 90 days from now is about 57.36 (This Alfalah Consumer probability density function shows the probability of Alfalah Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alfalah Consumer price to stay between 12.23 and its current price of 14.42 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.03 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alfalah Consumer has a beta of -0.63. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Alfalah Consumer are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Alfalah Consumer is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Alfalah Consumer has an alpha of 0.5656, implying that it can generate a 0.57 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alfalah Consumer Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alfalah Consumer
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alfalah Consumer. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alfalah Consumer's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alfalah Consumer Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alfalah Consumer is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alfalah Consumer's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alfalah Consumer, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alfalah Consumer within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.57 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.63 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.75 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
Alfalah Consumer Technical Analysis
Alfalah Consumer's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alfalah Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alfalah Consumer. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alfalah Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alfalah Consumer Predictive Forecast Models
Alfalah Consumer's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alfalah Consumer's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alfalah Consumer's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alfalah Consumer in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alfalah Consumer's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alfalah Consumer options trading.