AmerisourceBergen (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 223.62
| ABG Stock | EUR 223.10 2.10 0.93% |
AmerisourceBergen |
AmerisourceBergen Target Price Odds to finish below 223.62
The tendency of AmerisourceBergen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 223.62 after 90 days |
| 223.10 | 90 days | 223.62 | about 72.33 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AmerisourceBergen to stay under € 223.62 after 90 days from now is about 72.33 (This AmerisourceBergen probability density function shows the probability of AmerisourceBergen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AmerisourceBergen price to stay between its current price of € 223.10 and € 223.62 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.36 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon AmerisourceBergen has a beta of 0.72. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AmerisourceBergen average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AmerisourceBergen will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AmerisourceBergen has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. AmerisourceBergen Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AmerisourceBergen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AmerisourceBergen. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AmerisourceBergen Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AmerisourceBergen is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AmerisourceBergen's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AmerisourceBergen, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AmerisourceBergen within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0044 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.72 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 12.91 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
AmerisourceBergen Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AmerisourceBergen for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AmerisourceBergen can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AmerisourceBergen has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| AmerisourceBergen has accumulated 4.63 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 152.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. AmerisourceBergen has a current ratio of 0.93, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist AmerisourceBergen until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, AmerisourceBergen's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like AmerisourceBergen sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for AmerisourceBergen to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about AmerisourceBergen's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 78.0% of AmerisourceBergen shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
AmerisourceBergen Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AmerisourceBergen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AmerisourceBergen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AmerisourceBergen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 207.3 M |
AmerisourceBergen Technical Analysis
AmerisourceBergen's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AmerisourceBergen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AmerisourceBergen. In general, you should focus on analyzing AmerisourceBergen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AmerisourceBergen Predictive Forecast Models
AmerisourceBergen's time-series forecasting models is one of many AmerisourceBergen's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AmerisourceBergen's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AmerisourceBergen
Checking the ongoing alerts about AmerisourceBergen for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AmerisourceBergen help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AmerisourceBergen has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| AmerisourceBergen has accumulated 4.63 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 152.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. AmerisourceBergen has a current ratio of 0.93, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist AmerisourceBergen until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, AmerisourceBergen's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like AmerisourceBergen sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for AmerisourceBergen to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about AmerisourceBergen's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 78.0% of AmerisourceBergen shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Other Information on Investing in AmerisourceBergen Stock
AmerisourceBergen financial ratios help investors to determine whether AmerisourceBergen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AmerisourceBergen with respect to the benefits of owning AmerisourceBergen security.