AbbVie (Brazil) Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 74.86
| ABBV34 Stock | BRL 69.32 2.19 3.26% |
AbbVie |
AbbVie Target Price Odds to finish over 74.86
The tendency of AbbVie Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 74.86 or more in 90 days |
| 69.32 | 90 days | 74.86 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AbbVie to move over R$ 74.86 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AbbVie Inc probability density function shows the probability of AbbVie Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AbbVie Inc price to stay between its current price of R$ 69.32 and R$ 74.86 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.89 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AbbVie Inc has a beta of -0.0488. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding AbbVie are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, AbbVie Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally AbbVie Inc has an alpha of 0.1199, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AbbVie Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for AbbVie
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AbbVie Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AbbVie Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AbbVie is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AbbVie's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AbbVie Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AbbVie within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.77 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
AbbVie Technical Analysis
AbbVie's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AbbVie Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AbbVie Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing AbbVie Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AbbVie Predictive Forecast Models
AbbVie's time-series forecasting models is one of many AbbVie's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AbbVie's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards AbbVie in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, AbbVie's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from AbbVie options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in AbbVie Stock
When determining whether AbbVie Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze AbbVie's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact AbbVie's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding AbbVie Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out AbbVie Backtesting, AbbVie Valuation, AbbVie Correlation, AbbVie Hype Analysis, AbbVie Volatility, AbbVie History as well as AbbVie Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.