Alaska Air (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 427.89
| A1LK34 Stock | BRL 397.00 2.00 0.50% |
Alaska |
Alaska Air Target Price Odds to finish over 427.89
The tendency of Alaska Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over R$ 427.89 or more in 90 days |
| 397.00 | 90 days | 427.89 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alaska Air to move over R$ 427.89 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Alaska Air Group, probability density function shows the probability of Alaska Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alaska Air Group, price to stay between its current price of R$ 397.00 and R$ 427.89 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.38 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alaska Air Group, has a beta of -0.1. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Alaska Air are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Alaska Air Group, is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Alaska Air Group, has an alpha of 0.9343, implying that it can generate a 0.93 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alaska Air Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alaska Air
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alaska Air Group,. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alaska Air Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alaska Air is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alaska Air's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alaska Air Group,, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alaska Air within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.93 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 54.37 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.22 |
Alaska Air Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alaska Air for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alaska Air Group, can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alaska Air Group, appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Alaska Air Group, has accumulated 5.13 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.78, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Alaska Air Group, has a current ratio of 0.88, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Alaska Air until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Alaska Air's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Alaska Air Group, sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Alaska to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Alaska Air's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 2.73 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.22 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (680 M). | |
| Alaska Air Group, has accumulated about 3.55 B in cash with (100 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 28.51. |
Alaska Air Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alaska Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alaska Air's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alaska Air's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Float Shares | 123.99M | |
| Average Daily Volume In Three Month | 4 |
Alaska Air Technical Analysis
Alaska Air's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alaska Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alaska Air Group,. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alaska Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alaska Air Predictive Forecast Models
Alaska Air's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alaska Air's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alaska Air's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alaska Air Group,
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alaska Air for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alaska Air Group, help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alaska Air Group, appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Alaska Air Group, has accumulated 5.13 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.78, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Alaska Air Group, has a current ratio of 0.88, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Alaska Air until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Alaska Air's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Alaska Air Group, sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Alaska to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Alaska Air's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 2.73 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.22 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (680 M). | |
| Alaska Air Group, has accumulated about 3.55 B in cash with (100 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 28.51. |
Other Information on Investing in Alaska Stock
Alaska Air financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alaska Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alaska with respect to the benefits of owning Alaska Air security.