American Airlines (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 13.6

A1G Stock  EUR 15.86  0.44  2.70%   
American Airlines' future price is the expected price of American Airlines instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Airlines Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance.
  
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American Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 13.6

The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to € 13.60  or more in 90 days
 15.86 90 days 13.60 
about 62.89
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to drop to € 13.60  or more in 90 days from now is about 62.89 (This American Airlines Group probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Airlines price to stay between € 13.60  and its current price of €15.86 at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.43 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon American Airlines has a beta of 0.96. This suggests American Airlines Group market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, American Airlines is expected to follow. Additionally American Airlines Group has an alpha of 0.7542, implying that it can generate a 0.75 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   American Airlines Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for American Airlines

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.0815.8619.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.4612.2416.02
Details

American Airlines Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Airlines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Airlines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Airlines Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Airlines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.75
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.96
σ
Overall volatility
2.05
Ir
Information ratio 0.20

American Airlines Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Airlines for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Airlines can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
American Airlines appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
About 56.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

American Airlines Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding650.6 M

American Airlines Technical Analysis

American Airlines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Airlines Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Airlines Predictive Forecast Models

American Airlines' time-series forecasting models is one of many American Airlines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Airlines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American Airlines

Checking the ongoing alerts about American Airlines for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Airlines help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
American Airlines appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
About 56.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in American Stock

When determining whether American Airlines is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Airlines' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Airlines' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.