Excellence Optoelectronic (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 21.81
| 6288 Stock | TWD 27.65 0.65 2.30% |
Excellence |
Excellence Optoelectronic Target Price Odds to finish below 21.81
The tendency of Excellence Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 21.81 or more in 90 days |
| 27.65 | 90 days | 21.81 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Excellence Optoelectronic to drop to NT$ 21.81 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Excellence Optoelectronic probability density function shows the probability of Excellence Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Excellence Optoelectronic price to stay between NT$ 21.81 and its current price of NT$27.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.82 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Excellence Optoelectronic has a beta of 0.82. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Excellence Optoelectronic average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Excellence Optoelectronic will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Excellence Optoelectronic has an alpha of 0.1285, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Excellence Optoelectronic Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Excellence Optoelectronic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Excellence Optoelectronic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Excellence Optoelectronic Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Excellence Optoelectronic is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Excellence Optoelectronic's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Excellence Optoelectronic, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Excellence Optoelectronic within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.82 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Excellence Optoelectronic Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Excellence Optoelectronic for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Excellence Optoelectronic can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Excellence Optoelectronic had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Excellence Optoelectronic has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Excellence Optoelectronic has accumulated about 1.52 B in cash with (426.17 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.66. | |
| Roughly 39.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Excellence Optoelectronic Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Excellence Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Excellence Optoelectronic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Excellence Optoelectronic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 175.7 M |
Excellence Optoelectronic Technical Analysis
Excellence Optoelectronic's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Excellence Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Excellence Optoelectronic. In general, you should focus on analyzing Excellence Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Excellence Optoelectronic Predictive Forecast Models
Excellence Optoelectronic's time-series forecasting models is one of many Excellence Optoelectronic's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Excellence Optoelectronic's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Excellence Optoelectronic
Checking the ongoing alerts about Excellence Optoelectronic for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Excellence Optoelectronic help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Excellence Optoelectronic had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Excellence Optoelectronic has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Excellence Optoelectronic has accumulated about 1.52 B in cash with (426.17 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.66. | |
| Roughly 39.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Excellence Stock Analysis
When running Excellence Optoelectronic's price analysis, check to measure Excellence Optoelectronic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Excellence Optoelectronic is operating at the current time. Most of Excellence Optoelectronic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Excellence Optoelectronic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Excellence Optoelectronic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Excellence Optoelectronic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.