Heilongjiang Agriculture (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.00
| 600598 Stock | 13.91 0.17 1.24% |
Heilongjiang |
Heilongjiang Agriculture Target Price Odds to finish below 7.00
The tendency of Heilongjiang Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 7.00 or more in 90 days |
| 13.91 | 90 days | 7.00 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Heilongjiang Agriculture to drop to 7.00 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Heilongjiang Agriculture Co probability density function shows the probability of Heilongjiang Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Heilongjiang Agriculture price to stay between 7.00 and its current price of 13.91 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.23 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Heilongjiang Agriculture Co has a beta of -0.26. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Heilongjiang Agriculture are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Heilongjiang Agriculture Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Heilongjiang Agriculture Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Heilongjiang Agriculture Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Heilongjiang Agriculture
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heilongjiang Agriculture. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Heilongjiang Agriculture Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Heilongjiang Agriculture is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Heilongjiang Agriculture's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Heilongjiang Agriculture Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Heilongjiang Agriculture within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Heilongjiang Agriculture Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Heilongjiang Agriculture for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Heilongjiang Agriculture can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Heilongjiang Agriculture generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limiteds Shares Lagging The Market But So Is The Business - Simply Wall St |
Heilongjiang Agriculture Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Heilongjiang Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Heilongjiang Agriculture's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Heilongjiang Agriculture's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 B |
Heilongjiang Agriculture Technical Analysis
Heilongjiang Agriculture's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Heilongjiang Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Heilongjiang Agriculture Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Heilongjiang Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Heilongjiang Agriculture Predictive Forecast Models
Heilongjiang Agriculture's time-series forecasting models is one of many Heilongjiang Agriculture's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Heilongjiang Agriculture's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Heilongjiang Agriculture
Checking the ongoing alerts about Heilongjiang Agriculture for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Heilongjiang Agriculture help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Heilongjiang Agriculture generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limiteds Shares Lagging The Market But So Is The Business - Simply Wall St |
Other Information on Investing in Heilongjiang Stock
Heilongjiang Agriculture financial ratios help investors to determine whether Heilongjiang Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Heilongjiang with respect to the benefits of owning Heilongjiang Agriculture security.