China National (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 37.86
| 600536 Stock | 48.31 2.44 4.81% |
China |
China National Target Price Odds to finish below 37.86
The tendency of China Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 37.86 or more in 90 days |
| 48.31 | 90 days | 37.86 | about 9.74 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China National to drop to 37.86 or more in 90 days from now is about 9.74 (This China National Software probability density function shows the probability of China Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China National Software price to stay between 37.86 and its current price of 48.31 at the end of the 90-day period is about 36.84 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon China National has a beta of 0.73. This suggests as returns on the market go up, China National average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding China National Software will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally China National Software has an alpha of 0.5996, implying that it can generate a 0.6 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). China National Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for China National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China National Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.China National Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China National Software, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.60 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.73 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
China National Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of China National for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for China National Software can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| China National appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 6.72 B. Net Loss for the year was (232.75 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.07 B. | |
| China National generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 38.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Despite shrinking by CN1.8b in the past week, China National Software Service shareholders are still up 78 percent over 3 years - Simply Wall St |
China National Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 859.8 M |
China National Technical Analysis
China National's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China National Software. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
China National Predictive Forecast Models
China National's time-series forecasting models is one of many China National's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China National's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about China National Software
Checking the ongoing alerts about China National for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for China National Software help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| China National appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 6.72 B. Net Loss for the year was (232.75 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.07 B. | |
| China National generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 38.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Despite shrinking by CN1.8b in the past week, China National Software Service shareholders are still up 78 percent over 3 years - Simply Wall St |
Other Information on Investing in China Stock
China National financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China National security.