Formosa Optical (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 78.68
| 5312 Stock | TWD 109.00 0.50 0.46% |
Formosa |
Formosa Optical Target Price Odds to finish over 78.68
The tendency of Formosa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above NT$ 78.68 in 90 days |
| 109.00 | 90 days | 78.68 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Formosa Optical to stay above NT$ 78.68 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Formosa Optical Technology probability density function shows the probability of Formosa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Formosa Optical Tech price to stay between NT$ 78.68 and its current price of NT$109.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 82.96 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Formosa Optical Technology has a beta of -0.23. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Formosa Optical are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Formosa Optical Technology is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Formosa Optical Technology has an alpha of 0.1148, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Formosa Optical Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Formosa Optical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Formosa Optical Tech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Formosa Optical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Formosa Optical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Formosa Optical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Formosa Optical Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Formosa Optical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.88 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Formosa Optical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Formosa Optical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Formosa Optical Tech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 47.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Formosa Optical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Formosa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Formosa Optical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Formosa Optical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 60.1 M |
Formosa Optical Technical Analysis
Formosa Optical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Formosa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Formosa Optical Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Formosa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Formosa Optical Predictive Forecast Models
Formosa Optical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Formosa Optical's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Formosa Optical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Formosa Optical Tech
Checking the ongoing alerts about Formosa Optical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Formosa Optical Tech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 47.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Formosa Stock Analysis
When running Formosa Optical's price analysis, check to measure Formosa Optical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Formosa Optical is operating at the current time. Most of Formosa Optical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Formosa Optical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Formosa Optical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Formosa Optical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.