Cheng Mei (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 13.38
| 4960 Stock | 12.95 0.25 1.89% |
Cheng |
Cheng Mei Target Price Odds to finish below 13.38
The tendency of Cheng Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 13.38 after 90 days |
| 12.95 | 90 days | 13.38 | about 85.34 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cheng Mei to stay under 13.38 after 90 days from now is about 85.34 (This Cheng Mei Materials probability density function shows the probability of Cheng Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cheng Mei Materials price to stay between its current price of 12.95 and 13.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.67 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cheng Mei has a beta of 0.23. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Cheng Mei average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cheng Mei Materials will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Cheng Mei Materials has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Cheng Mei Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cheng Mei
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cheng Mei Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cheng Mei Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cheng Mei is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cheng Mei's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cheng Mei Materials, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cheng Mei within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Cheng Mei Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cheng Mei for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cheng Mei Materials can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cheng Mei Materials generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 25.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Cheng Mei Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cheng Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cheng Mei's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cheng Mei's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 675.1 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -337.8 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 653 M |
Cheng Mei Technical Analysis
Cheng Mei's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cheng Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cheng Mei Materials. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cheng Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cheng Mei Predictive Forecast Models
Cheng Mei's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cheng Mei's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cheng Mei's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cheng Mei Materials
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cheng Mei for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cheng Mei Materials help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cheng Mei Materials generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 25.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Cheng Stock Analysis
When running Cheng Mei's price analysis, check to measure Cheng Mei's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cheng Mei is operating at the current time. Most of Cheng Mei's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cheng Mei's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cheng Mei's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cheng Mei to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.