Paragon Banking (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.33
| 46P1 Stock | EUR 8.70 0.30 3.33% |
Paragon |
Paragon Banking Target Price Odds to finish below 5.33
The tendency of Paragon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 5.33 or more in 90 days |
| 8.70 | 90 days | 5.33 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Paragon Banking to drop to € 5.33 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Paragon Banking Group probability density function shows the probability of Paragon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Paragon Banking Group price to stay between € 5.33 and its current price of €8.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 27.73 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Paragon Banking has a beta of 0.71. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Paragon Banking average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Paragon Banking Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Paragon Banking Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Paragon Banking Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Paragon Banking
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Paragon Banking Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Paragon Banking Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Paragon Banking is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Paragon Banking's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Paragon Banking Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Paragon Banking within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.71 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.39 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Paragon Banking Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Paragon Banking for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Paragon Banking Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Paragon Banking has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Paragon Banking Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Paragon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Paragon Banking's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Paragon Banking's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 237.8 M |
Paragon Banking Technical Analysis
Paragon Banking's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Paragon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Paragon Banking Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Paragon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Paragon Banking Predictive Forecast Models
Paragon Banking's time-series forecasting models is one of many Paragon Banking's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Paragon Banking's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Paragon Banking Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Paragon Banking for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Paragon Banking Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Paragon Banking has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Other Information on Investing in Paragon Stock
Paragon Banking financial ratios help investors to determine whether Paragon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Paragon with respect to the benefits of owning Paragon Banking security.