Chumpower Machinery (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 20.45
| 4575 Stock | TWD 21.30 0.50 2.29% |
Chumpower |
Chumpower Machinery Target Price Odds to finish below 20.45
The tendency of Chumpower Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 20.45 or more in 90 days |
| 21.30 | 90 days | 20.45 | about 1.77 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chumpower Machinery to drop to NT$ 20.45 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.77 (This Chumpower Machinery Corp probability density function shows the probability of Chumpower Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Chumpower Machinery Corp price to stay between NT$ 20.45 and its current price of NT$21.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.12 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Chumpower Machinery Corp has a beta of -0.0624. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Chumpower Machinery are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Chumpower Machinery Corp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Chumpower Machinery Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Chumpower Machinery Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Chumpower Machinery
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chumpower Machinery Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Chumpower Machinery Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chumpower Machinery is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chumpower Machinery's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Chumpower Machinery Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chumpower Machinery within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.84 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Chumpower Machinery Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Chumpower Machinery for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Chumpower Machinery Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Chumpower Machinery generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Chumpower Machinery has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 877.07 M. Net Loss for the year was (13.14 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 172.68 M. |
Chumpower Machinery Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Chumpower Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Chumpower Machinery's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chumpower Machinery's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.7 M |
Chumpower Machinery Technical Analysis
Chumpower Machinery's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Chumpower Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Chumpower Machinery Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Chumpower Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Chumpower Machinery Predictive Forecast Models
Chumpower Machinery's time-series forecasting models is one of many Chumpower Machinery's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Chumpower Machinery's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Chumpower Machinery Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Chumpower Machinery for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Chumpower Machinery Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Chumpower Machinery generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Chumpower Machinery has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 877.07 M. Net Loss for the year was (13.14 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 172.68 M. |
Additional Tools for Chumpower Stock Analysis
When running Chumpower Machinery's price analysis, check to measure Chumpower Machinery's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chumpower Machinery is operating at the current time. Most of Chumpower Machinery's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chumpower Machinery's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chumpower Machinery's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chumpower Machinery to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.