Episil Holding (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 37.97
| 3707 Stock | TWD 45.80 0.50 1.08% |
Episil |
Episil Holding Target Price Odds to finish over 37.97
The tendency of Episil Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above NT$ 37.97 in 90 days |
| 45.80 | 90 days | 37.97 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Episil Holding to stay above NT$ 37.97 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Episil Holding probability density function shows the probability of Episil Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Episil Holding price to stay between NT$ 37.97 and its current price of NT$45.8 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.6 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Episil Holding has a beta of -0.0254. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Episil Holding are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Episil Holding is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Episil Holding has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Episil Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Episil Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Episil Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Episil Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Episil Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Episil Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Episil Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Episil Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Episil Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Episil Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Episil Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Episil Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 26.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Episil Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Episil Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Episil Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Episil Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 330.7 M |
Episil Holding Technical Analysis
Episil Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Episil Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Episil Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Episil Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Episil Holding Predictive Forecast Models
Episil Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Episil Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Episil Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Episil Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Episil Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Episil Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Episil Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 26.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Episil Stock Analysis
When running Episil Holding's price analysis, check to measure Episil Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Episil Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Episil Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Episil Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Episil Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Episil Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.