Chicony Electronics (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 121.76
| 2385 Stock | TWD 149.00 1.50 1.00% |
Chicony |
Chicony Electronics Target Price Odds to finish below 121.76
The tendency of Chicony Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 121.76 or more in 90 days |
| 149.00 | 90 days | 121.76 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chicony Electronics to drop to NT$ 121.76 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Chicony Electronics Co probability density function shows the probability of Chicony Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Chicony Electronics price to stay between NT$ 121.76 and its current price of NT$149.0 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.87 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Chicony Electronics has a beta of 0.0947. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Chicony Electronics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Chicony Electronics Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Chicony Electronics Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Chicony Electronics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Chicony Electronics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chicony Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Chicony Electronics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chicony Electronics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chicony Electronics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Chicony Electronics Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chicony Electronics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.57 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Chicony Electronics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Chicony Electronics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Chicony Electronics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Chicony Electronics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 20.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Chicony Electronics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Chicony Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Chicony Electronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chicony Electronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 707.9 M |
Chicony Electronics Technical Analysis
Chicony Electronics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Chicony Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Chicony Electronics Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Chicony Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Chicony Electronics Predictive Forecast Models
Chicony Electronics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Chicony Electronics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Chicony Electronics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Chicony Electronics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Chicony Electronics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Chicony Electronics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Chicony Electronics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 20.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Chicony Stock Analysis
When running Chicony Electronics' price analysis, check to measure Chicony Electronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chicony Electronics is operating at the current time. Most of Chicony Electronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chicony Electronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chicony Electronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chicony Electronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.