Federal Corp (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 21.6
| 2102 Stock | TWD 18.70 0.40 2.09% |
Federal |
Federal Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 21.6
The tendency of Federal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over NT$ 21.60 or more in 90 days |
| 18.70 | 90 days | 21.60 | about 51.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Federal Corp to move over NT$ 21.60 or more in 90 days from now is about 51.0 (This Federal Corp probability density function shows the probability of Federal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Federal Corp price to stay between its current price of NT$ 18.70 and NT$ 21.60 at the end of the 90-day period is about 48.97 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Federal Corp has a beta of -0.0997. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Federal Corp are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Federal Corp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Federal Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Federal Corp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Federal Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federal Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Federal Corp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Federal Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Federal Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Federal Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Federal Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.80 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.23 |
Federal Corp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Federal Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Federal Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Federal Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.56 B. Net Loss for the year was (2.35 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (734.83 M). | |
| Federal Corp has accumulated about 1.24 B in cash with (761.79 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.7. | |
| Roughly 55.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Federal Corp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Federal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Federal Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Federal Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 459.6 M |
Federal Corp Technical Analysis
Federal Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Federal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Federal Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Federal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Federal Corp Predictive Forecast Models
Federal Corp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Federal Corp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Federal Corp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Federal Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Federal Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Federal Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Federal Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.56 B. Net Loss for the year was (2.35 B) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (734.83 M). | |
| Federal Corp has accumulated about 1.24 B in cash with (761.79 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.7. | |
| Roughly 55.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Federal Stock Analysis
When running Federal Corp's price analysis, check to measure Federal Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Federal Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Federal Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Federal Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Federal Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Federal Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.