Alcoa Corp (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 28.69
| 185 Stock | EUR 35.30 0.40 1.12% |
Alcoa |
Alcoa Corp Target Price Odds to finish below 28.69
The tendency of Alcoa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 28.69 or more in 90 days |
| 35.30 | 90 days | 28.69 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa Corp to drop to € 28.69 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Alcoa Corp probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alcoa Corp price to stay between € 28.69 and its current price of €35.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.99 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Alcoa Corp has a beta of 0.55. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alcoa Corp average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alcoa Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alcoa Corp has an alpha of 0.2307, implying that it can generate a 0.23 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alcoa Corp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alcoa Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alcoa Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alcoa Corp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alcoa Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alcoa Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alcoa Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alcoa Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.23 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.55 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.68 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Alcoa Corp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alcoa Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alcoa Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alcoa Corp had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Alcoa Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 12.45 B. Net Loss for the year was (102 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.31 B. | |
| Over 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Alcoa Corp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alcoa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alcoa Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alcoa Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 177 M |
Alcoa Corp Technical Analysis
Alcoa Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alcoa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alcoa Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alcoa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alcoa Corp Predictive Forecast Models
Alcoa Corp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alcoa Corp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alcoa Corp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alcoa Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alcoa Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alcoa Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alcoa Corp had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Alcoa Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 12.45 B. Net Loss for the year was (102 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.31 B. | |
| Over 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Alcoa Stock
When determining whether Alcoa Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Alcoa Corp's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Alcoa Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Alcoa Corp Stock:Check out Alcoa Corp Backtesting, Alcoa Corp Valuation, Alcoa Corp Correlation, Alcoa Corp Hype Analysis, Alcoa Corp Volatility, Alcoa Corp History as well as Alcoa Corp Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Alcoa Stock please use our How to Invest in Alcoa Corp guide.You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.